A week of shock waves has left the Democratic primary race right back where it started.
As the 2020 election year dawned, an average of national polls showed former Vice President Joe Biden leading the Democratic primary field with the support of 28% of Democrats, while Sen. Bernie Sanders stood in second place—nine points behind him.
This week, the Democratic presidential race shook out as a two-man race, in which Mr. Biden has captured 36% of all the primary and caucus votes cast so far, with Mr. Sanders in second place—seven points behind him.
As the similarity of those readings suggests, all the ups and downs, fire and fury, chaos and drama of the last two months have merely brought the presidential primary contest back to what it seemed destined to be at the outset: a fight between the liberal Mr. Sanders and the more moderate Mr. Biden.
More shocking than the alignment that has emerged is the blinding speed with which it crystallized.
When Democrats debated in South Carolina less than two weeks ago, seven major candidates stood on the stage. This week, five of them—billionaire Tom Steyer, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and, finally, Sen. Elizabeth Warren—all departed the race.
In sum, in the wake of last Saturday’s South Carolina primary, Democratic candidates quit the race at the rate of roughly one a day.
On the Republican side, President Trump has been watching all this with seeming bemusement, acting almost as an election analyst using Twitter as his platform. In recent days, his tweets have shown a clear bent: He is charging that the Democratic establishment is trying to steal the nomination from the outsider, Mr. Sanders, by combining forces to stop him.
That line of argument from the president may reflect a desire to sow division among Democrats, or to see Mr. Sanders emerge as his fall opponent, on the theory he is easiest to beat. Most likely, the president is hoping to pull away some populist, working-class Sanders supporters if Mr. Sanders fails to win the nomination.
Amid the drama, the best news for Democrats may have been big turnout in Super Tuesday states, a reflection of high voter engagement.
According to data compiled by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, Democratic turnout in 13 of the 14 states that voted on Super Tuesday was above four years ago—and in five of them it surpassed the level of 2008, when a high-profile contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton drove up interest.
Write to Gerald F. Seib at jerry.seib@wsj.com
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