Substance will beat flash.
That’s not to say the 49ers can’t be flashy or the Chiefs aren’t substantively a legitimate threat to win Super Bowl LIV in Miami.
Oddsmakers are pretty good at what they do, rating the Chiefs a point to a point-and-a-half favorite. In other words, a tossup.
It could go either way Sunday, but when in doubt, side with the better all-around team. The 49ers are more diverse on both sides of the ball, giving them more ways to win.
The 49ers can win running or passing, or with a near-perfect blend of balance. They can rush the passer. If the way they treated Dalvin Cook and the Minnesota Vikings in the divisional round is any indication, they can also stop the run.
Kansas City was better defensively toward the end of the season, but still prone to mistakes and big plays. The Chiefs don’t run it much, putting pretty much everything on the shoulders of Patrick Mahomes, their remarkable quarterback.
The matchup of the 49ers’ Kyle Shanahan and the Chiefs’ Andy Reid is the best in memory when it comes to two creative play designers going head to head. Notice the term “play designers” and not “play callers.”
Sitting in front of a television and playing Madden has spawned a nation of play callers, who mistakenly believe success emanates from the selection of a specific play. The true genius of Shanahan and Reid is their ability to not only call the play, but teach it and execute it during the practice week so it comes off choreographed as a beautiful, violent ballet on Sundays.
Screens, misdirection and even basic runs are disguised with motion and formation, with mismatches arising at the line of scrimmage as well as the defensive backfield.
And since it’s too close to call between Shanahan and Reid in that area, we’ll lean toward the better all-around team.
A look at what could be perceived as two problem areas for the 49ers and why they can overcome them:
The ‘rusty’ passing game
Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown only 27 passes in two playoff games and hasn’t thrown 30 passes in a game since Dec. 15.
But make no mistake, the 49ers are plenty dangerous through the air even if they haven’t needed it much against the Vikings and Rams. Garoppolo was near-flawless on the opening drive against the Vikings.
George Kittle is always a threat, and judging from the way Deebo Samuel trucked Green Bay’s Darnell Savage on a 30-yard catch-and-run in the NFC Championship game, he’s a seven-catch, 100-yard receiver waiting to happen against the Chiefs.
Can't stop DEEEEBO! @19problemz with the huge gain 🚲#BeLegendary pic.twitter.com/yEcCPS6ryl
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) January 19, 2020
It’s not as if the 49ers stopped practicing their pass plays during the week. They simply haven’t needed them, and there isn’t a coach in the NFL that wouldn’t have done exactly what Shanahan has done when circumstances warrant. Run, run and run some more with Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert.
If anything, the direct approach in the postseason lends an air of mystery to Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who has very little to go on of late as he prepares for Shanahan.
Secondary considerations
The 49ers best cover corner, Richard Sherman, is 31 years old and coming off two Achilles’ surgeries. Their safeties, Jaquiski Tartt and Jimmie Ward, are known more for their ability to deliver a blow than chase down a ball in flight.
Chiefs receivers Sammy Watkins, Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman are as fast as any unit in the NFL and they will get open. So will tight end Travis Kelce.
Try as you might to come up with a comp for Mahomes, none fits. Not even Russell Wilson. He’s that unique.
But while there have been comparisons of this 49ers team to the one that won its first Super Bowl under Bill Walsh after the 1981 season, this matchup is more like the one three years later at Stanford Stadium. Dan Marino’s numbers at the time were as off the charts as Mahomes’ are now. He had the speedy Marks brothers (Duper, Clayton).
The 49ers don’t have a secondary to match that one with Ronnie Lott, Eric Wright, Carlton Williamson and Dwight Hicks. And Mahomes moves better than Marino ever did. But the strategy is similar — control the ball through balance on offense. On defense, surrender the short passes, don’t get beat deep and punish the quarterback.
The 49ers have the personnel up front defensively with Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner and Dee Ford to execute such a plan.
The defensive front is only half of where a championship is won. Even against a quarterback as special as Mahomes and an offense as explosive as the Chiefs, blocking and tackling count for even more.The 49ers offensive line has been dominant. Tackles Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey, guards Laken Tomlinson and Mike Person and center Ben Garland appear capable of keeping a Frank Clark-Chris Jones generated rush at bay and opening holes on the ground along with fullback Kyle Juszczyk.
As dangerous as the Chiefs are on special teams with Hardman on returns, the 49ers were spot-on in terms of field position swings in the first two rounds of the playoffs.
The Chiefs and Mahomes will do some damage and have the “Wow” factor on their side.
The 49ers? They’ve got the better team.
Final score: 49ers 34, Chiefs 27
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February 01, 2020 at 11:01PM
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Why substance over flash will get 49ers past Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV - Chico Enterprise-Record
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